Danone said second-quarter sales growth accelerated and first-half profitability improved, as the French food group leaned on high-protein dairy, medical nutrition and emerging-market strength to offset a recall in infant formula and higher input costs. The company reported H1 2026 recurring earnings per share of EUR 1.92, up 0.9% from a year earlier, while Q2 like-for-like sales rose 4.2% and reported sales increased 4.4% to EUR 7.2 billion. The shares were quoted at $613.31, compared with a previous close of $329.54, though the price data appeared inconsistent.
Key Takeaways
Like-for-like sales growth accelerated to 4.2% in Q2 from a weaker Q1, showing a clear improvement in momentum.H1 recurring operating margin rose to 13.3%, up 12 basis points year over year, despite recall and inflation pressures.Free cash flow reached EUR 0.9 billion in the first half, supported by operating performance.High-protein products, medical nutrition and waters all contributed to growth across regions.Management said North America is improving, but the turnaround remains early and will take time.
Company Performance
Danone posted a solid first half, with growth broadening across categories and regions. Management said the business benefited from a portfolio focused on health, nutrition and hydration, which helped offset disruption from the infant milk formula recall and conflict-related cost inflation.
The second quarter was notably stronger than the first. Like-for-like sales rose 4.2% at group level in Q2, while H1 growth reached 3.5%. Reported sales in the quarter increased 4.4% to EUR 7.2 billion, helped by scope contributions from the Kate Farms acquisition and the consolidation of an Australian dairy joint venture, partly offset by currency pressure.
The company’s operating performance also held up well. Recurring operating margin reached 13.3% in H1, with productivity gains helping absorb higher costs. Danone said its dairy and plant-based unit saw margin pressure, but waters and specialized nutrition helped balance the mix.
Financial Highlights
Q2 like-for-like sales growth: 4.2%, up from a softer Q1.H1 like-for-like sales growth: 3.5%, despite recall and conflict-related disruptions.Q2 reported sales: EUR 7.2 billion, up 4.4% year over year.H1 recurring operating margin: 13.3%, up 12 basis points year over year.H1 recurring EPS: EUR 1.92, up 0.9% year over year.H1 free cash flow: EUR 0.9 billion.Volume/mix contribution: +1.7% in H1 and +1.9% in Q2.Scope contribution in Q2: +0.8%.Currency impact in Q2: -1%.Inventory: up about EUR 250 million in H1 as a precautionary measure.Full-year revenue (LTM): $28.36 billion, reflecting the company’s global scale.Diluted EPS (LTM): $3.24, supporting steady shareholder returns.
Earnings vs. Forecast
No earnings-per-share or revenue forecast comparison was provided for the quarter, so a formal surprise calculation is not available. Even so, the reported figures point to a steady operating result rather than a dramatic upside or downside shock.
The main signal from the call was momentum. Q2 growth improved from Q1, and management described the performance as broad-based and resilient. That matters because the first quarter had been affected by the infant formula recall and conflict-related supply issues. Against that backdrop, the second-quarter acceleration suggests the business recovered some lost ground.
H1 recurring EPS rose 0.9%, which is modest but positive in a period marked by margin pressure and temporary supply-chain costs. The operating margin also improved, indicating that Danone is still converting sales growth into profit even in a difficult environment. InvestingPro assigns the company a “GOOD” Financial Health Score of 2.69 out of 5, with particularly strong marks in profitability. Subscribers gain access to detailed health metrics, Fair Value estimates, and over a dozen additional ProTips that provide deeper insight into the company’s competitive position.
Market Reaction
The stock data provided showed a current price of $613.31 versus a previous close of $329.54, which would imply a gain of about 86.1%. However, the quoted change was listed as 0%, and the 52-week range was also shown as $613.31 to $613.31, suggesting the quote feed was not reliable or was incomplete.
Based on the operating results alone, investor sentiment would likely lean constructive. Danone delivered stronger Q2 growth, improved margin and solid cash generation, all of which support the company’s defensive growth profile. At the same time, the market may remain cautious because the North America turnaround is still early and H1 margin was held back by recall-related issues and inflation.
Outlook & Guidance
Danone reaffirmed its 2026 outlook for like-for-like sales growth of 3% to 5%, and said recurring operating income is expected to grow faster than sales. Management also pointed to selective price increases starting in the third quarter to help offset commodity inflation, especially in dairy.
The company said H1 margin phasing should improve as pricing actions take effect later in the year. It also expects the temporary inventory build to unwind in H2 as supply chains normalize.
Strategically, Danone highlighted several growth drivers:
Continued expansion in high-protein yogurt and functional dairy.Recovery in infant milk formula, especially in Europe and China.Strong medical nutrition demand.Further rollout of North American capacity line by line through 2026.Additional innovation in Activia, Oikos, Silk and International Delight.Planned acquisitions including Kate Farms, Huel, Made Group, the remaining Australian dairy stake and an Argentine joint venture.
Executive Commentary
“We delivered strong growth in quarter two, with like-for-like sales up +4.2% at group level,” Chief Executive Antoine de Saint-Affrique said. “This performance was broad-based across both categories and geographies.”
He added that “the food industry is at a tipping point,” arguing that health through food is becoming more important for consumers and patients. That view underpins Danone’s focus on nutrition-led categories such as medical nutrition, high-protein yogurt and infant formula.
Chief Financial Officer Juergen Esser said the company generated “free cash flow of EUR 0.9 billion on the first half,” despite the temporary increase in security stocks. He said the business continued to invest while protecting customer service levels.
Management also stressed that the North America turnaround is progressing, but slowly. De Saint-Affrique said the company is “still only at the beginning of the journey” in parts of the dairy portfolio, reflecting the time needed to add capacity and relaunch brands.
Risks and Challenges
Infant formula recovery: The recall still affected H1 performance and trust rebuilding will take time.Input-cost inflation: Energy and packaging costs remain under pressure, especially in dairy.North America execution: The turnaround in yogurt, creamers and plant-based products is still in its early stages.Supply-chain disruption: Danone increased inventory to protect service levels, showing that logistics remain fragile.Margin timing: Pricing actions are expected in H2, so profitability could stay under pressure before improving.
Q&A
Analysts focused on four main issues: the slowdown in volume mix in China and other Asia markets, the pace of the North America turnaround, cash flow and capital spending, and the outlook for margins.
On China, management said the market for infant formula is normalizing and that the premium Essensis range is performing well. It also said volume-based purchasing and pricing pressure are part of the normal business environment.
On North America, executives said protein yogurt is still growing, while the rest of the portfolio remains capacity constrained. They said new production lines are coming online gradually, which should allow the company to expand beyond high-protein products over time.
Questions about free cash flow centered on the EUR 250 million inventory increase. Management said this was a precautionary move tied to supply-chain disruptions and should unwind in the second half.
Analysts also asked about the EDP margin decline. Danone said the drop reflected recall effects and the timing gap between inflation and pricing. The company expects selective price increases in Q3 to help restore profitability.
Full transcript – Danone DRC (BSNm) Q2 2026:
Conference Operator: Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Danone H1 2026 results webcast and conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Paul Evis, investor relations director. Please go ahead.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Good morning, everyone. Paul speaking. Thank you for being with us this morning for Danone’s H1 2026 results call. I’m here with our CEO, Antoine de Saint-Affrique, and our CFO, Juergen Esser, who will go through some prepared remarks before taking your questions. Before we start, I draw your attention to the disclaimer on slide 32 of the presentation related to forward-looking statements and the definition of financial indicators that we will refer to during the presentation. With that, let me hand over to you, Antoine.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to you all. Thank you for joining Juergen and me for our H1 2026 results presentation. As you will have seen in the headline of our press release this morning, we are pleased to share with you another set of solid, high-quality results. Let’s start with slide three and our like-for-like sales growth in the second quarter. As you can see on the chart, we delivered strong growth in quarter two, with like-for-like sales up +4.2% at group level. Juergen will come back to the details later, but this performance was broad-based across both categories and geographies. These strong results are delivered in what remains obviously a challenging and volatile external environment. It once again demonstrates the relevance of our health-focused portfolio and the strength of our multi-engine growth model.
It also reflects the hard work, the commitment, and the passion of the Danone’s around the world. Their focus on serving consumers, driving execution excellence, and continuously improving our business remains at the heart of our performance. I would really like to take this opportunity to thank them for their contribution. With this strong quarter two performance, we close a solid first half, once again, delivering on our business model. Let’s move now to slide four. Looking at the first half as a whole, we delivered like-for-like sales growth of +3.5%, despite a first quarter, which was far from business as usual. Growth was well-balanced in H1, with volume mix contributing +1.7%. Disciplined execution across the organization and strong productivity gains drove a 12 basis point improvement in the recurring operating margin year-over-year, reaching 13.3%.
Importantly, this was achieved while continuing to invest behind our capabilities, behind our brands, behind our science and our innovations. Our solid operational performance and strong financial discipline also translated into recurring earnings per share of EUR 1.92, up 0.9% versus last year, while free cash flow generation reached $0.9 billion. The quality of our H1 performance further demonstrates the resilience of our business model and reflects our ability to capitalize on the favorable structural trends that continue to reshape the foods industry. Moving to slide five. As I have said before, the food industry is at a tipping point, health through food has never been more relevant. Danone is uniquely positioned at the intersection of attractive, health-focused categories, supported by powerful long-term demand trends. Around the world, consumers are placing greater emphasis on health, nutrition, and healthy hydration, we continue to see strong demand across our winning platforms.
Our science-based approach, combined with a relentless focus on product superiority and innovation, allows us to offer nutritional solutions that support people at every stage of life. Our science is now concretely translating into powerful innovation. In dairy, high-protein products remain a key growth driver across all regions, from North America to Europe, Latin America, and Asia Pacific, growing double-digits everywhere. Our more recent platforms such as Activia and Kefir are also gaining strong traction with consumers, growing double-digits in Europe in H1. We continue to expand them both within and beyond Europe. In plant-based, Alpro continued to deliver high single-digit growth in Europe in H1, with innovation remaining a key growth driver.
Our high protein and Greek-style plant-based yogurt ranges continue to perform very well, while we are progressively rolling out newer propositions such as Meal to Go across Europe, following its successful launch in Germany. The product addresses growing demand for convenient and nutritious meal solutions. We also recently launched a new matcha coconut ready-to-drink offering, which has seen very positive consumer response so far. If you haven’t tried, I only can encourage you to do so. Another area where we continue to see strong momentum in H1 across the region is medical nutrition. Favorable demographic trends and increasing diagnosis rates continue to support both our adult and our pediatric businesses. This is reflected in the strong performance of our flagship brands, Nutricia, Fortimel, and Neocate, which delivered a high single- to double-digit growth in H1.
As these platforms continue to scale, they make an increasingly meaningful contribution to both the quality and the strength of our growth profile. Importantly, they also drive our exposure to attractive channels that continue to outgrow traditional retail. Across strategic channels such as away from home, hospitals, pharmacies, and home care, we continue to grow two to three times faster than in mass retail. While the structural growth driver keep boosting our winning platforms, we remain equally focused on the areas where further progress is needed. In North America, we have previously discussed our dissatisfaction with the competitiveness of parts of our EDP portfolio. We saw some improvements in performance during Q2, which is encouraging. That said, we are still only at the beginning of the journey, we remain focused on sequentially executing the initiatives that are needed to deliver a sustained improvement in performance over time.
In our yogurt, as we have already shared, additional production lines are coming online throughout 2026, enabling us to further strengthen our own shelf execution and better serve demand while progressively reactivating segments beyond high protein and obviously leveraging the breadth of our portfolio. Looking ahead, we have a comprehensive innovation roadmap planned across H2 2026 and into 2027. This includes reactivating Activia by leveraging successful learnings from Japan on functional claims and from Europe on fiber-based innovation, while expanding our presence in formats and segments such as nourishing everyday Greek yogurt and tubs with Oikos, therefore addressing the gaps in our portfolio. There is more to come, including additional initiatives and that leveraging the strong heritage and equity of the Danone brand, and there you will have to stay tuned.
In our creamers, we will continue to support the ongoing improvement of International Delight through innovation and renovation in 2027, including upgraded core recipes and new products designed to capture the fast-growing clean label trend. In plant-based, as part of our efforts to reposition our Silk from a plant-based brand to a plant-powered nutritional complement to dairy, we have recently expanded our protein range with the launch of Silk protein yogurt and Silk protein shakes. As said, all of these initiatives will be rolled out progressively to support a gradual improvement in our North America EDP performance over the coming quarters. In our EMEA, in the IMF category, we are now back to a normal situation in terms of presence on shelf. Our focus has now shifted from restoring supply to rebuilding trust in the category.
Our sales teams are engaging closely with maternity hospital and healthcare professional. We are giving parents greater visibility into how our products are made to reinforce confidence in our brand, virtually opening our factories, showcasing our quality processes, and highlighting the extensive testing behind our products. In quarter three, we will launch a new campaign to support these efforts and remind consumers of the quality, nutrition, and expertise that comes with our 50 years of early life nutrition research. Although the disruption affecting IMF market continued into quarter two, we expect the market to progressively normalize throughout the remainder of the year. Let’s now move to slide six. Our business model is predicated on quality organic growth. This remains our top priority. At the same time, as part of Renew Danone Chapter two, we have also made clear our ambition to be more active on M&A.
Our approach remains highly disciplined and is guided by three clear filters. First, strong strategic fit, focusing on opportunities within our core categories or adjacencies. Second, strict financial discipline with value creation at the core and maintaining structurally double-digit ROIC as a key priority. Third, but equally important, execution capabilities, ensuring we have the capabilities and the teams required to successfully leverage acquisitions. The transactions signed during the first half are strong illustrations of this approach. They further enhance our health-focused portfolio and support our value creation ambition. As Juergen discussed in quarter one, the contemplated acquisition of Huel would extend our presence in the premium complete nutrition space. Huel is a well-established player in a nutritionally balanced meal with a sizable business in Europe and the U.S., positioned in a highly complementary segment to our portfolio.
Beyond the category opportunity, they bring extensive capabilities in direct-to-consumer channels, digital marketing, and community engagement, while operating at the intersection of health and convenience. In parallel, we announced a new chapter for Argentinian dairy business. Together with our longtime partner, Arcor, we are creating a joint venture that combines our portfolio to unlock the full potential of dairy markets in the region. While the transaction will technically de-consolidate our Argentinian dairy business, we expect the synergies generated by the joint venture to be EPS accretive over time. Finally, in June, we signed the acquisition of Made Group, expanding our presence in the fast-growing healthy nutrition space in Asia Pacific. Made brings a well-established portfolio of brands spanning high protein ready-to-drink products, gut health yogurts, and coconut-based products aligned with our health-focused strategy. The transaction would strengthen our presence across Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia.
Together with the acquisition of the remaining stake of our Australian fresh dairy joint venture, it would double the size of our EDP business in APAC, adding more than EUR 400 million of sales. Made will be accretive to both operating margin and EPS from year one. We expect to close all these transactions in the second half of the year. As you see, we keep moving at pace organically and inorganically. With that, I’ll hand over to Jürgen. Jürgen?
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: Thank you, Antoine, and good morning to all of you. Let me start our financial review with our Q2 sales performance on slide number eight. As you heard from Antoine, we have seen a return to strong quality growth in the second quarter with like-for-like sales up +4.2%. Growth was actually well-balanced across our three regions and across all our categories. While we will dive into regional details shortly, let me comment briefly on our categories. Our EDP business delivered solid like-for-like growth of +3.8% in the quarter. While our protein and other functional yogurt platforms continue to be the primary growth driver, we have also seen increasing contribution from core brands such as Danone and Activia, with promising results of our recently introduced fiber and kefir innovations. In specialized nutrition, like-for-like sales grew +4.5% in the period.
Growth was supported by the continued strength of our medical nutrition business across all regions. At the same moment, we can report a progressive recovery of our infant milk formula in Europe and the Middle East that started mid-second quarter and that we see progressing since. Finally, our waters business that delivered +4.7% like-for-like growth, notably driven by a strong start to the season in Europe, and here, especially for the Volvic brand, as well as driven by an accelerated momentum of the AQUA brand in Indonesia. Let me now turn to our traditional sales bridge for the second quarter on slide number nine. Within the +4.2% like-for-like growth that I just described, volume mix played once again a key role contributing +1.9%. Importantly, volume mix was positive in all regions and in all categories, reflecting the relevance of our portfolio.
For the first time in several quarters, reported sales growth exceeded like-for-like growth in Q2. Scope contributed +0.8%, reflecting the acquisition of Kate Farms last year and the consolidation of our dairy joint venture in Australia. At the same time, the currency impact moderated to -1% in the quarter. As a result of those movements, reported sales reached EUR 7.2 billion, up +4.4% versus last year. Let’s now take a closer look at the performance of each region, starting with Europe, Middle East, Africa on slide number 10. Momentum in the EMEA region improved in Q2 as our infant milk formula business progressively recovers and as our EDP and waters businesses continue to deliver solid growth. All together, like-for-like sales were up +3.6%, driven by 2.2% volume mix.
Let me start with specialized nutrition that is back to growth with around +3% in the second quarter. A few comments first on our IMF business. In the Middle East, we saw actually a fast catch-up in Q2 following a Q1 that was impacted by both the recall and the onset of the conflict. In Europe, while our on-shelf availability returned to normal in the month of June, the first part of the quarter was still impacted by disruptions. The category in Europe was still somewhat soft, although trends have improved sequentially throughout the quarter. Our teams are mobilized to rebuild trust amongst healthcare professionals and consumers, and we are confident that the category will gradually return to normal. In EDP, we continued to deliver strong performance across the region. In dairy, HiPRO, skyr and Kefir all posted double-digit growth.
Activia extended its positive momentum, posting growth for the third consecutive quarter in Europe. Our Alpro plant-based brand also continued to perform very well, consistently delivering competitive growth and driving the category through innovation. Finally, our waters business that delivered a solid start to the season, notably driven by our Volvic and Evian brands, with both plain water and recent Aquadrinks innovations under the Volvic brand growing very fast. For the first semester, the EMEA region grew sales +2.1% on a like-for-like basis and saw its recurring operating margin stable at 10.4%, a solid achievement in the context of the IMF recall. Let’s now move to the Americas region on slide number 11. The Americas region delivered +4.3% like-for-like sales growth, accelerating versus previous quarters. Within that performance, North America also improved with +2.6% growth in the second quarter.
Within North America, the performance of our EDP business continues to improve. In Q2, we saw again strong growth in high protein under the Oikos brand, with an acceleration in our drinkable product formats. We have, at the same moment, seen a stabilization of our Creamers business under the International Delight brands. As Antoine mentioned earlier, we are confident in our ability to further restore competitiveness in those categories, supported by a strong pipeline of innovation for the quarters ahead. Beyond EDP, specialized nutrition performed well across the region. The infant milk formula business in Latin America was particularly strong, growing double digits driven by the Aptamil brand. In North America, our medical nutrition business further accelerated in Q2, and those numbers do not yet include Kate Farms, which continues to perform strongly and which will enter the like-for-like perimeter from Q3 onwards.
Overall, for the first half, the Americas region delivered +3.9% like-for-like growth and +31 basis points of recurring operating margin expansion. Turning now to our Asia Pacific region on slide 12. The region delivered +5.2% like-for-like sales growth in Q2, again, largely driven by volume mix. We see solid momentum in specialized nutrition, which accounts for two-thirds of the region’s sales. In IMF China, we delivered competitive growth in a category that has been normalizing and against high level of comps of last year. The teams are focused on executing our premiumization strategy with a continued strong momentum of our Essensis range. In the rest of Asia, our IMF business is performing strongly, and let me highlight especially the business sales in India as well as in Vietnam.
In medical nutrition, we saw continued strong demand for both adult medical nutrition as well as baby medical nutrition. While it still is relatively small, we are particularly pleased by the momentum of our oral solutions business, which is gaining scale rapidly across both China and Australia, New Zealand. In Japan, our EDP business is delivering another quarter of double-digit growth. Both Oikos and Activia performed strongly, supported by effective activation and execution. The full consolidation of our dairy joint venture in Australia represents a meaningful addition to the EDP category in the region and will start contributing to like-for-like performance from next year onwards. In waters, performance was more contrasted across our two main brands. In China, Mizone started soft into the season in a slow category environment and despite market shares that are well-oriented.
On the other hand, we posted very strong results in AQUA Indonesia in the quarter on the back of a dynamic waters category. Overall, for the first half, the APAC zone delivered +5.6% like-for-like sales growth and recurring operating margin of 24.7%, slightly ahead of last year. Let’s now turn to the margin bridge for the first half of 2026 on slide 13. Our recurring operating margin increased by 12 basis points in the first half of 2026 to 13.3%. The IMF recall, as well as the increase of some commodity indexes following the Middle East conflict, impacted our margin from operations in the first six months of the year. Thanks to several cost initiatives launched over the last quarters, our teams around the world were able to counter those headwinds with an elevated level of productivity and efficiency gains.
That immediate step-up in savings has been important to deliver on our business model. As you know, we believe in a value creation model driven by quality growth and fueled by consistent investment into future growth and efficiency initiatives. Let’s move to the next slide 14, to look at our EPS and cash generation over the period. The strong operational performance, which we just went through, remained the primary driver of EPS growth in H1, contributing +8.3%. This was offset largely by a negative currency impact of -7%. The remaining items had limited impact, with higher refinancing costs compensated by tax associates and minorities. As a result, recurring EPS increased by 0.9% in the first semester to EUR 1.92. This leads me to another key indicator of our value creation journey, our cash generation.
We delivered free cash flow of EUR 0.9 billion on the first half, supported by our strong operational performance. This was achieved while continuing to invest into the business and despite the temporary increase of security stocks to ensure customer service levels. This concludes the financial review for the first half of the year. Let me turn to the next page number 15. Here, let me first thank our teams whose commitment and excellence in execution enabled us to deliver those solid results in the first semester, despite the challenging environment. It is reinforcing our confidence to continue delivering competitive growth and value creation in the future. We are therefore today confirming our financial guidance for year 2026 with +3% to +5% like-for-like sales growth and recurring operating income to grow faster than sales.
With that, let me hand it back to Antoine for the conclusion.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: On slide 16. Thank you, Juergen. Before we open the floor to question, I would like to leave you with a few final thoughts. As you’ve seen today, we delivered another half year of solid, high-quality results. As I told you, this performance reflects the relevance of our health-focused portfolio, the strengths of our growth platforms, and the commitment of our teams around the world. While we are obviously happy with these results, we also remain clear-eyed about the work that still lies ahead. We are encouraged by the progress we are seeing in some areas, but we continue to operate with a mindset of constructive dissatisfaction and a relentless focus on execution. As you have heard me say many times before, we believe the food industry is at a tipping point. Consumer and patients are increasingly looking for science-based nutritional solution that support their health and wellbeing.
With our unique portfolio in health-focused categories, our strong science capabilities, and our commitment to quality, I believe we are uniquely positioned to benefit from these long-term trends. Our priority remains to deliver consistent performance while continuing to transform the company. We will continue to strengthen our portfolio through innovation, disciplined investment, and selective acquisition, positioning Danone for long-term sustainable growth. With that, let me hand back to Paul to start the Q&A question. Paul, over to you.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Great. Thank you very much, Antoine and Jürgen. Now we start the Q&A session with the first question coming from Guillaume Delmas at UBS. Morning, Guillaume.
Guillaume Delmas, Analyst, UBS: Thank you very much, Paul, and good morning, Antoine and Jürgen. Couple of questions for me, please. The first one on CNAO, so China, North Asia, Oceania. Volume mix slowed quite significantly between the Q1 and Q2. I think Q1 we were 10.5, and now it’s more 1.5% volume mix. I appreciate comps were a bit tougher in the quarter, could you maybe shed some light on this slowdown and what’s driving it in terms of division, category, or country? Looking ahead, it’s not like comps get any easier. In fact, they’re slightly tougher going forward. Are you confident you’ll be able to maintain a positive volume mix in the back half of the year in CNAO? My second question on North America, Antoine, you said during the presentation that we are still at the beginning of the journey.
You’re clearly trying to signal the improvement will be progressive, patience may be required. My question here is the turnaround of North America maybe taking a bit more time than you initially expected? When we think about the key drivers, the creamers, traditional yogurt, plant-based beverages, where do you expect the fastest progress being visible very quickly, and what could take a little bit longer? Thank you very much.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Merci, Guillaume. We’ll do probably a duet with Jürgen on that. Let me start with CNAO. First, I’m super happy with the performance of our CNAO. I mean, the quality of what they are doing, the quality actually of the delivery on competitors that are, as you said, very, very tough, is really good in the market when it comes to IMF, that has been normalizing. Happy with the performance. I mean, the key driver on volume mix is Mizone and the waters category. The category itself is going down in the quarter. All in all, pretty confident that we will keep delivering in CNAO. Jürgen?
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: Just to reiterate our confidence in very solid growth patterns, including on volume mix in the region. It’s true that Mizone has created a little bit of volatility in that second quarter, but what is really reassuring is the very competitive performance of our IMF business in China. I think we have been discussing at length the exciting opportunity in medical nutrition. I think we are well set for the quarters to come in CNAO.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: On your question on North America, no, it doesn’t take longer than what I expect. As we said, our capacity in there will come progressively. It’s not opening of a new factory, but it’s line by line over the coming quarters. This is enabling us to start reactivating the rest of the portfolio, so it doesn’t happen from one day to the other. What we have in the pipeline, from an innovation standpoint and what will help reigniting the brands that we haven’t been supporting because of our capacity looks very strong. You will see the start of it in H2 with Activia. You will see some new formats coming onto our growth and more to come in the following year. We will do things in an orderly fashion so that it is solid and building competitive advantage for the long term.
In the short term, I’m very happy to see stabilization of our creamers. As we’ve discussed, it’s step one. We also need to analyze the emerging consumer trends, and there, naturally, it takes a bit more time. The first indications on our creamers are encouraging. By the way, everything that is our protein is absolutely fine. Things are deploying as per plan. Pretty confident with what I’m seeing, but indeed, it’s going to be progressive.
Guillaume Delmas, Analyst, UBS: Thank you very much.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Thank you, Guillaume. I see. Thank you, Guillaume. Our next question is from Nicolas Cerone at Bank of America.
Nicolas Cerone, Analyst, Bank of America: Hi there. Good morning. Thank you, Paul. Hi, Antoine and Juergen. Can I ask just one question on North America to follow up? We’re all trying to understand to what extent it’s really the capacity constraint that’s impacting your performance. Maybe if you could just clarify what kind of volume growth you’re seeing in yogurt in North America in your business. Are you seeing volume flat as you would expect for capacity constraint, or do you think volume going down? The second question would be on the China clinical nutrition business. Are you seeing some pricing pressure from the government linked to volume-based purchasing? I know some of your competitors have been talking about that, and I was wondering if that impacts your business as well. Thank you.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: [Foreign language] Nicolas. Listen, on North America, as we said, on everything that is protein, we see a consistent growth. The rest of the portfolio was under quota. As we progressively release capacity, we will leverage, as we said, that capacity to do two things, keep delivering to the protein growth because there are still more growth to be taken out of our protein and starting to reignite the rest of our portfolio. Juergen, anything?
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: The only element to I think there’s a lot of excitement watching NielsenIQ data, especially for North America, and you have seen that NielsenIQ data, especially the last revised ones for our yogurt business in the U.S. are moving in the right direction. I think, which is a good indication that things are performing as we want them to perform progressively.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Yeah. There was a bit of a reevaluation by NielsenIQ on the way they measure things. It starts looking more like what we see in our own data. Listen, on medical nutrition in China, it is a very exciting market. Number one, it’s a very exciting market because in the place where we are the absolute leader, which is tube, we can go deeper. In Tier 2, Tier 3 hospital, there is a huge conversion work to be done when it comes to moving from the parenteral to enteral. We are super excited with what we see in, by the way, other sub-categories where we are only scratching the surface. Pediatrics, we have a nice business that is growing very fast. In oral nutrition, which is growing very fast, we are only at the start of the journey.
When it comes to volume-based pricing, to be honest, it’s not new. That’s the thing that is happening everywhere in the world. We have been handling that in about every country in the world. For us, it’s pretty much business as usual.
Nicolas Cerone, Analyst, Bank of America: Okay. Merci, Antoine.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Thank you, Nicolas. Our next question is from Jon Cox at Kepler. Morning, Jon.
Jon Cox, Analyst, Kepler: Morning. A couple of questions, if I can. One on the free cash flow. When I dig into your half year report, I see the inventory is up about EUR 250 million, which is a fair chunk probably of what was seen as maybe a light print on the free cash flow. Do you think this will unwind in the second half of the year, talking about the Middle East? Also maybe just on the CapEx is a little bit high, maybe you can talk a little bit about free cash flow and CapEx. You’ve said that now maybe you’re starting to obviously spend more on new plants and things like that. The second question, just on the profitability, again, looking at the EDP business, the margin is off 70 basis points year-on-year versus a year ago. Just wondering what’s going on there.
I think a lot of us still think that that business should start to see better profitability. I can see the 10 basis points beat was driven by, actually by Waters, which is up almost 200 basis points. Thank you.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Jürgen?
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: Morning, Jon. Look, on the free cash flow, you say it, we took a decision in the first half of the year to increase our security stocks internally because fair to say that global supply chains are a bit disrupted, especially when going through the Middle East region, and this is true actually for finished product as much as for some of the raw materials. As a precautionary measure, we increased security stocks that will fade away in the quarters to come. It’s really just a very temporary element. The rest of the free cash flow, very strong and especially coming from our operational performance. CapEx is slightly increasing, I think we talked EUR 40 million, EUR 50 million in the semester.
As we discussed actually over the last quarters, as a result of the investments we are doing into medical nutrition and high protein, nothing new to report on that front. EDP margin, in H1, is a bit down. You are absolutely right. It’s relatively easy to explain because the inflation kicks in from the second quarter onwards. We will see, as usual, a bit of lag between inflation and price. Pricing, we will increase prices selectively across the regions as we go through the third quarter already. That will rebalance. Don’t look at the EDP margin isolated in the first semester, I think it’s not really telling because we share your belief that the EDP margin is going to increase over time.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Now, the second thing is, we keep investing behind our winning innovations. We’ll push high protein, we’ll push Kefir, we’ll push HiPRO, and we’ll push our plant-based offering, all the rest of it, making sure that we list them, making sure that we make them visible. There is also a dimension of our consistent investment.
Jon Cox, Analyst, Kepler: Great. Thank you.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Thanks, Jon. Our next question is from David Rood at Morgan Stanley.
David Rood, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Morning, Antoine, morning, Jürgen, and well done on a very solid set of results. I’ve just got two quick questions. Can we just go back to North America EDP and just remind me on your protein shake ambitions, is that something that you guys will revisit once the additional yogurt capacity comes online? Because that’s gone somewhat quiet the last couple of quarters. Then the second one is just a more broader question on emerging markets. It’s a theme that we’ve seen the last couple of quarters, strength in emerging markets. How sustainable do you think this is? Do you think that there’s been somewhat of a pull forward of demand given concerns around supply chains, et cetera, or do you see a sustained sort of underlying strength there?
I think partly the concern or the question comes from concern over those consumers possibly getting squeezed a bit more on higher energy costs, et cetera, but we haven’t really seen that play out yet. Thanks.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Good morning, David. Thanks. Yet again, probably a duo with Juergen. On North America shakes, we’ll keep going as fast as we can, and whenever we have capacity available, we will seize every opportunity there is. We don’t talk specifically about shakes, but altogether, the trend is positive and things are going rather well. We’ll keep pushing the growth there. Nothing really special to report except that we’re quite happy with the performance.
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: Just one element to add, which I think we stick to what we said. First priority is bringing back our yogurt business to where it belongs, and second, and really after, we are going to accelerate and press the acceleration button on protein shakes. That’s very clear. What is very reassuring is that despite the fact that we have not been allocating a lot of resources into the protein shakes, we are quite sticky on shakes. I’m sure you can see that when you go to the stores in North America. That’s an opportunity in front of us.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: The core and the innovation, but the core, the core, the core. On emerging markets, and we’ll do there also direct with Juergen. If you step back and if you look at Danone has actually a quite balanced footprint. Historically, actually, a pretty large footprint in emerging markets. The performance that you see in emerging markets has been actually quite consistent over time. Not everything goes well everywhere all the time. By and large, we got some pool and we got pool that is not topical as you were worried of, but a pool that is very, very structural. You take a country like Indonesia, if you take one of our largest emerging markets, we offer great value at every price point.
In a market that has been, frankly, under pressure from a consumer standpoint for a long time, we are delivering a pretty solid performance. We try to be relevant despite the ups and downs of emerging market. You see that in Latin America, you see that in places like Morocco, you see that in places like Indonesia or Vietnam, for that matter.
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: Yeah, I think what is interesting is that a lot of our business in emerging markets is now coming. A lot of growth in emerging markets is coming through the pipes of specialized nutrition, a lot through IMF, and here we are gaining scale, and that’s really an opportunity for us. We can talk about Brazil, we can talk about India, we can talk about Vietnam. There’s many countries where we are really at a tipping point and where we are reaching very interesting numbers, not only in growth but also in dollars and euros. That will definitely be ahead moving forward in terms of performance for us.
David Rood, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Very clear. Thank you.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Thanks, David. Next question is from Warren Ackerman at Barclays. Morning, Warren.
Warren Ackerman, Analyst, Barclays: Morning, Paul. Morning, Antoine, Juergen. Hopefully you can hear me okay. I’ve got a few sort of numbery type questions. Are you able to tell us what Kate Farms is growing at, just so we got an idea from a modeling point of view, when it goes into like for like, it will be helpful. Secondly, on Mizone, I don’t know whether you can actually tell us how much it was down in China in the quarter. Just trying to understand what the underlying CNO number was to try and sort of piece that together. Finally, when are we expecting the launch of Nutrisse in China? I mean, you talked about premiumization, Antoine, I assume it’s still scheduled for this year in the second half.
Can you confirm that and maybe tell us how it’s doing in Hong Kong, and do you think it could be another Essensis? Thanks.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Let me start with the last one, and Juergen will address the first two. Nutrisse is doing quite well in Hong Kong, and the launch is progressively deploying in mainland China as we speak. It is super premium, so it’s relatively a niche product. It’s a niche where we weren’t playing. It’s the top 5% of the market where only a local player was playing. Very encouraged with what we see in Hong Kong, moving according to our plans on Nutrisse.
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: When it comes to North America and our specialized nutrition business there, you see that already outside of Kate Farms, a pretty good performance, double-digit growth. Kate Farms will only amplify that. Kate Farms is growing at a very strong pace and will enter, as you say, Warren, from Q3 onwards, the like for like performance. China, Mizone was pretty much down actually in Q2, in a category which was very soft temporarily, definitely here. While weather has been helping a bit in Europe, weather has definitely not been helping in China. Good news here is that market shares are well-oriented, it shows the relevance of our mix, but it did indeed, as you say, pull down quite a bit our CNO performance in the second quarter.
Warren Ackerman, Analyst, Barclays: Thanks.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Thanks, Warren. Next question is from Olivier Nicolai at Goldman Sachs.
Olivier Nicolai, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Thank you, Paul. Good morning, Antoine, Juergen. Two questions. First, following up on the U.S., but focusing on the plant-based products this time. You’ve initiated a plan to turn around the performance at the beginning of the year. We are halfway through now, so are you on track? What are the major difficulties that you’re facing in the U.S. for plant-based compared to Europe, where it’s doing much better? Secondly, just on Huel, how are you planning to position the brand versus Alpro, while you’re already expanded into meal replacement, and how do these two brands complement each other? Thank you.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: [Foreign language], Olivier. On plant-based U.S., we are basically on plan. As you heard me say last quarter, and probably the quarter before, we have a model that is working extremely well in Europe. Alpro, having moved from being plant-based to being plant-powered, focusing on the benefits it delivers, playing the food piano between beverages and yogurt is proving to be a very efficient model. Also offers a platform for innovation, as you’ve seen with Meal to Go. There was, and you heard me say it very publicly a number of times, a not invented here syndrome in the U.S. Things are starting to move. The first sign you’ve seen is what we are doing in the field of protein with Silk, which is a step 1 in a plan that we’ll continue to deploy.
You will see much more coming at the start of next year. Very much on plan from an activity standpoint. Now we need to make sure that activity is followed by impact. If I see what we are capable of delivering in Europe, I trust that as we deploy the same or something similar in the U.S. over the course of the next few quarters, we should be heading in the right direction. When it comes to Huel has actually a slightly different positioning from Alpro. Yes, Alpro Meal to Go is playing in the same space as Huel, but with a positioning that is very different and with a route to market that is very different. One of the things that really excites me with Huel is the team excites me.
It’s a super good team, and it’s the capabilities that the team have been bringing or developing. direct-to-consumer, virtually no advertising above the line, all are community management. Issuing something like 300 or 400 assets per month, when it comes to online advertising. An incredible ability to manage their community and to develop a model that is largely a direct-to-consumer model. Actually, I see the two of them as very complimentary. Huel starting, by the way, from a health and nutrition standpoint, Alpro starting from a plant-based standpoint. Although Huel is plant-based, but starting really from two different angles. I see that more as an opportunity of segmenting a market that will keep growing, rather than a frontal opposition.
Olivier Nicolai, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Thank you very much.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Thanks, Olivier. Our next question is from Celine Pannuti from JP Morgan. Morning, Celine.
Celine Pannuti, Analyst, JP Morgan: Yes. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Two questions. First on China, specialized nutrition. Infant milk formula, more precisely. Can you come back to tell us how is the market developing, in the quarter, in terms of market share performance, how you’ve been doing and, the supply chain disruption or let’s say rather the higher scrutiny on import from across check border, whether that has had any impact on you or positive impact, if you think that you’ve gained market share from some of your competitors that have been disrupted. My second question is on the cost side. Can you talk about what is your cost inflation expectation for the year? You said that H1, there seemed to be a phasing in terms of pricing and cost inflation for dairy. Are we expecting a stronger H2 margin?
I was expecting SN to be impacted by this recall, and it has not been the case. I know you don’t guide on margin, but usually, you’ve been delivering closer to 40 basis points. Are we on track for similar delivery this year? It’s just that it was a slow start. Thank you.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Celine Pannuti, we’ll do it. Let me start with part of the last question, Juergen will come back to it. Our guidance is our guidance, I’ve said it again and again and again. We are delivering consistently on a model which is 3%-5% of our growth, with profit growing faster than the top line. We don’t give margin guidance. We have a model that is value-creating for the long term, and we are confident that we will deliver on the model. Juergen will come on the cost side. On China shares, we are doing actually pretty well. We said it, the market has been normalizing. Normalizing means, after the Year of the Dragon, the trends of the market are back to the same. The way we execute in the market is back to the same.
It’s a strategy of innovation, it’s a strategy of premiumization, it’s a strategy of deep relationship with the mothers, trying to demonstrate that our products are better from a scientific standpoint. The Chinese authorities have always been very demanding. They are indeed more demanding. Is it a competitive advantage or not? To be honest, I don’t know whether it is. We comply to the requirements of the Chinese authority, we do what it takes for our products to be available in China.
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: Just to confirm that there’s no real supply chain disruption element, neither positive nor negative, in the first half. Market shares are pretty well oriented, thanks to Essensis, which continues to perform very well. Thanks to a continued shift towards more premium products. That continues to be the case. In that sense, I would say pretty reassuring underlying fundamentals. On cost inflation, not a lot to say. Obviously, energy and packaging costs are impacted by what we are seeing coming from the Middle East. It plays different on the categories. One single reason is that the hedging effectiveness is higher for categories like Specialized Nutrition or Waters than it is for Dairy, therefore there’s also different, I would say, margin phasing H1, H2, for the different categories. Beyond that, not much more to say.
We will stay true to our business model, which is a quality growth, delivering interesting gross margin and reinvesting while expanding a profit margin. That’s the overall business model we are aiming for, and we’ll progressively go back to that.
Can I just say, should we expect margin in EDP to be positive this year?
What obviously Antoine said it very well, we are not going to give margin guidance by category, but definitely, the margin of EDP will benefit from the fact that we are going to do price increases selectively across all the regions, yes.
Celine Pannuti, Analyst, JP Morgan: Thank you.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Thank you, Celine. We have time for one last question, which is from Tom Sykes at Deutsche Bank.
Tom Sykes, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Yeah, morning, everybody. Well, I just have two, please. Just coming back to this margin from operations. I know you said there’s a timing difference between COGS increases and pricing, but you’d stated before you’ve got mid-single digit, supposedly productivity in COGS. You’ve got mixed benefits by channel and product, and you’ve got the benefit of acquisitions. I don’t quite understand why your gross margin would be down. Maybe if you could give some more details. The depreciation charge looks like it’s down by EUR 100 million in the financial report. Is there an impairment on that or is that the actual depreciation number, please? Because I guess that would have been in theory, a benefit to the gross margin.
Just in the APAC growth of specialized nutrition of 4.4, maybe I missed it earlier, but could you give relative growth at least or a view on China IMF versus other country IMF and adult nutrition in that 4.4, please?
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Jolien, do you want to?
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: On the margin from operations, first, it’s a pretty organic number because M&A didn’t really impact that number. All the deals we have announced are closing in the second half of the year, in that sense, no real impact, nothing really to report here. Why is the margin from operations down in the first semester? First, we had the IMF recall impacts, let’s not forget that, in Q1. Secondly, as described, inflationary pressure with pricing kicking in only in the second part of this year. That’s the two key drivers. I think the teams, indeed, as you say, Tom, did an incredible job of acceleration of productivity and savings. That we were able to continue reinvesting into our business, which I think is a very strong sign of confidence that the financial algorithm works for us.
On APAC +4.4 specialized nutrition, it’s actually a pretty good number, as you say, it’s as much driven by China as by the rest of the region. Actually, the vast majority or two-thirds of the business in this region is specialized nutrition. IMF China has a very good contribution to that number, is growing competitively. I think that we are going to see a continued good contribution to the results of the company also in the quarters to come.
Tom Sykes, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Sorry, just the D&A number. Thank you for those.
Juergen Esser, Chief Financial Officer, Danone: The D&A number, nothing really. Frankly, there’s no specific effect neither one-off.
Tom Sykes, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Okay, it is down by EUR 100 million. Okay, thank you.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Okay, thank you. That’s the final questions.
Antoine de Saint-Affrique, Chief Executive Officer, Danone: Good. Listen, well first, many thanks for joining us for this call this morning. As you can see, we are on the move, happy with the quarter but knowing that there is more to do. We are on it. We keep driving and I will see you soon on the road. Take care, everyone. Bye.
Paul Evis, Investor Relations Director, Danone: Thank you.
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