Agriculture Department data shows China has so far booked roughly 1.3 million tons of soybeans from this fall’s harvest — the crop covered by its pledge to buy 25 million tons a year through 2028 — though the pace has picked up sharply in recent weeks, and Beijing continues taking heavy deliveries of last season’s crop. Those purchases may or may not count toward the pledge, which was never put in writing.
“The soybean buying only really picked up in the last couple weeks,” said the third person familiar with the U.S. thinking on negotiations, a former official close to the Trump administration. “Right now, people here are looking at what’s actually been delivered since Beijing and getting angry.”
The White House said Beijing is on track to meet its agricultural product commitment for the 2026-2027 marketing year.
China cut its usual multi-billion-dollar U.S. soybean purchases as part of its trade war with the U.S. last year. The White House views a resumption of those sales as key to maintaining support in Midwestern soybean-producing states of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana. Iowa in particular is home to a number of hotly contested races for the House as well as for an open Senate seat.
“Trump and his team want to see the beans finalized. China hasn’t placed the order,” said the second person familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking on negotiations.
The office of the U.S. Trade Representative did not respond to a request for comment.
Ali Wyne, a China expert at the nonprofit research organization International Crisis Group who frequently meets with Chinese officials, said the Chinese government sees strategic value in delaying approval of multi-billion-dollar purchases of Boeings and soybeans because it keeps Trump focused on maintaining stable U.S.-China ties as a way to ensure the deals go through.
“Chinese officials believe that Trump wants and needs to maintain a strong rapport with Xi more than the other way around, especially with an eye to avoiding a fresh economic rupture ahead of the U.S. midterms,” Wyne said. “So Xi doesn’t feel a strong sense of urgency to consummate those purchases.”
Source:
www.politico.com