Published November 4, 2025
By Bruna Campos, Senior Campaigner for the Climate and Energy Program at the Center for International Environmental Law.
This is part of a multi-part CIEL blog series unpacking the law, politics, and power shaping COP30 — and what it will take to deliver climate justice.
This year’s climate talks are starting on shaky ground. In November, governments, civil society, and Indigenous Peoples will gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP30 — the United Nations summit to advance global climate action. A decade after adopting the Paris Agreement, countries face mounting urgency to honor their legally-binding commitment to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C by cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, many governments are arriving at COP30 without clear timelines and binding targets to halt the expansion of offshore oil and gas and phase out fossil fuels. Without these commitments, halting climate change and protecting the ocean will remain out of reach.
A Fossil-Free Ocean is Key to Climate Targets
Fossil fuel production and use are the main sources of the GHG emissions driving the climate crisis. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world must urgently stop producing coal, oil, and gas to avoid the worst climate impacts. Current trends, however, show that oil and gas production is shifting offshore.
If governments halt new offshore extraction, phase down existing production and consumption, and shift energy demand, they could avoid an estimated 5.3 gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) annually by 2050 — roughly 12% of current global emissions. Moving towards a fossil-free ocean is essential to the future health of our climate and our ocean.
Halting Offshore Expansion is a Legal Duty
Governments had until September 2025 to update their national climate plans (NDCs). As of November 4, only sixty-nine of 197 countries have done so. Most big emitters are heading to COP30 without concrete measures to reduce emissions. Even countries that have submitted new plans, like Brazil, Australia, and Japan, have failed to set binding targets or timelines to phase out oil and gas, both offshore and onshore.
Big emitters risk violating international law, as affirmed by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in its landmark Advisory Opinion. The ICJ was clear: to meet their legal obligations, countries must take appropriate action to protect the climate system from GHG emissions. This means presenting an NDC that reflects the country’s highest possible ambition in limiting warming to 1.5°C, including actions to curb fossil fuel production, consumption, exploration licenses, and subsidies.
Countries are Missing the Mark
At the UN Ocean Conference this year, Brazil and France challenged other countries to reduce GHG emissions through ocean-based climate actions (the Blue NDC Challenge). These actions can include restoring marine habitats that sequester carbon, increasing offshore renewable energy, and phasing out offshore oil and gas production. Despite their challenge, Brazil — the fifth-largest global emitter — approved offshore drilling in the Great Amazon Reef System just three weeks before COP30.
Australia, the third-largest fossil fuel exporter and a likely host for next year’s climate summit, accepted the Blue NDC Challenge. This country is home to vital ecosystems, such as the Great Barrier Reef, which the climate crisis has driven to the brink of irreversible collapse. Yet, the Australian government has completely omitted oil and gas phase-outs in its national plan and is instead awarding vast offshore exploration licenses covering 234,000 km.
Japan has, so far, put forward the weakest national plan, without a single timeline or target to reduce fossil fuel production or increase renewable energy. What’s more, between 2013 and 2024, Japan provided around $93 billion for overseas oil and gas projects. This includes $1.2 billion for the Tangguh LNG 3 project in Indonesia, which furthers the country’s fossil fuel dependency and greatly impacts indigenous communities.
It is time for countries whose economies are dependent on oil and gas production to diversify. Take Angola: in its national plan, the government recognizes the impact of climate change on its own people, but has failed to implement community-driven solutions that are at the nexus of nature, water, food, and health. Moreover, by the end of 2025, Angola will open more licenses for drilling in the Kwanza and Benguela basins, crucial areas for fishing communities.
The Course Ahead is Clear
Countries that contribute the least to climate change are suffering the worst impacts and carrying the burden of climate action. For example, Vanuatu has committed to powering itself with 100% renewable energy by 2035, while the Republic of the Marshall Islands aims to produce 65% of its energy through renewable sources by 2030.
The extensive harms caused by offshore oil and gas to our climate and ocean are indisputable. COP30 is a crucial opportunity to set clear timelines and binding targets to phase out fossil fuels at sea. It begins with one pivotal step: no new offshore oil and gas exploration and production licenses by the end of this year. To meet climate targets, we need a fossil-free ocean.
