Trump’s decision to push back his ultimatum to “obliterate” power plants is a welcome de-escalation to global markets and Gulf nations, which faced the fallout of Iranian retaliations. But though the news drew sighs of relief, Europe can’t overlook its continued exposure to the region.
While some will see this as vindication for caution in bending to US demands, it has simultaneously become impossible for Europeans to sit on the sidelines. Trump might have chosen the war but Europe is facing the fallout, more exposed through its energy vulnerabilities and simple geography – which brings the continent within striking distance of the world’s leading state sponsor of terror – Iran.
This weekend that threat grew, as it emerged Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the US-UK base at Diego Garcia, approximately 4,000 km from Iran. Though the rockets were brought down, they demonstrated Iran’s previously undisclosed long-range strike capability – one that demands much greater resources to guard against.
Given that these weapons have been developed whilst Iran was the world’s second most sanctioned country, it is clear that economic and diplomatic injunctions alone cannot defang a regime bent on resistance to the West – and now willing to hit neighbours harbouring US bases. Indeed, Iran’s ability to launch such lethal warheads despite the heavy US-Israeli bombardment only highlights the threat.
Trump has already leaned heavily on Europeans to throw their military weight behind the intervention, pressure that some have resisted more than others, not without good reason. But as Trump himself has often pointed out, Europeans are in the firing line even if they sit on the fence. And the risk posed by ballistic missiles cannot be unseen.
Add to the equation the global shortage of air defence systems and the staggering cost asymmetry of taking out drones that have already rattled EU nations, and the need for a concerted strategy to face Iranian hostility becomes imperative. This may not be Europe’s war, but it is undeniably Europe’s problem.
Roundup
EU should start stockpiling gas – The European Commission has urged EU countries to start filling gas storage facilities slowly and steadily to avoid exacerbating price pressure caused by the war in the Middle East. The energy commissioner recommended that targets be reduced to 80%, rather than the previously mandated 90%.
Trump steps back from Iran ultimatum – Donald Trump announced that the US will hold back from knocking out Iranian power plants to allow fresh talks on ending the war to advance. Trump said recent conversations with Iranian officials had been “in depth, detailed, and constructive”.
Mercosur moves closer – The trade deal between the EU and Mercosur will kick in provisionally from 1 May, meaning tariffs on most goods will be scrapped on both sides. The move has been highly contested by countries opposing Mercosur, such as France.
Across Europe
Meloni loses referendum – Italy’s referendum on judicial reform is set to deal a blow to Giorgia Meloni, with early results indicating that her hopes to reshape the balance of power between judges and prosecutors have been rejected by Italians. The vote was widely seen as a broader verdict on Meloni’s leadership.
Frederiksen poised for victory – On the eve of the Danish general election on Tuesday, Social Democrat Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen looks increasingly likely to win a third term – the open question is whether she builds her majority with left-wing or centrist parties. Polls consistently place her party as the largest by a clear margin, making her the most likely to form the next government.
Ukraine hits Russian oil port – Ukraine fired drones at a key Russian oil port near the Finnish border on Monday, both Moscow and Kyiv said, triggering a huge fire at the facility. Satellite images showed flames and thick plumes of black smoke rising into the air from the oil terminal in the Russian town of Primorsk, which sits on the Gulf of Finland and is about 50 kilometres from the EU and NATO member.
Source:
www.euractiv.com