Capitals fear EU mutual assistance talks could trigger Trump

Not everyone was comfortable discussing the EU’s mutual assistance clause at last week’s informal summit because some leaders fear giving Washington an opportunity to reduce its NATO commitment to the European continent’s security.

Four diplomats told Euractiv the debate in Cyprus came “too early” to the summit table, and could ultimately backfire with Donald Trump, the famously volatile US President. Trump has repeatedly questioned the value of the transatlantic alliance and pushed Europeans to shoulder more of their own defence burden.

The EU’s Article 42.7 solidarity clause risks being framed as a European alternative to NATO giving the US an opportunity to reduce its commitment to the alliance’s vaunted Article 5, diplomats fear.

If the EU starts scenario planning, operationally gaming and simulating its own mutual assistance clause to respond to a future security crisis Trump could say, “you already have your own mutual defence mechanism, so why do you still need NATO?” one EU diplomat said.

In recent months, the EU’s diplomatic arm has begun drafting a handbook explaining what kind of resources are available from the EU if the assistance clause is triggered, amid growing anxiety over the future reliability of US security guarantees.

The clause, introduced by the Lisbon Treaty, obliges EU countries to provide aid and assistance by all the means in their power if another member state becomes the victim of armed aggression. But unlike NATO’s Article 5, the mechanism has never been fully operationalised and remains politically ambiguous.

Euractiv first reported in early April that EU delegations were preparing a bureaucratic simulation exercise aimed at informing a future guidance document on the triggering process.

According to one EU official and one EU diplomat, the first simulation is set to take place next Monday at ambassador level.

The concerned diplomats said it’s crucial that such an exercise is kept at a strictly operational level without any political conclusion, especially considering the proximity of next July NATO summit in Ankara that already comes at a complicated time in transatlantic ties.

The issue was discussed during the informal EU summit meeting in Nicosia last week. Diplomats described the discussion as a brief and largely informational exchange. European Council President António Costa acknowledged publicly that discussions were under way.

The push is being driven in particular by Cyprus, which has become increasingly vocal about the need to give Article 42.7 real operational substance after Iranian drones targeted a British military base on the island in the first days of the Iran war, pushing some EU countries to move military assets in the region.

“42.7 cannot be something in theory, it must have substance,” President Nikos Christodoulides said. “We cannot be talking about the autonomy of the European Union if we don’t have a specific plan in these sectors and we don’t know how to move.”

The renewed urgency follows recent regional tensions, including Iranian drone activity targeting Cyprus, which prompted fresh discussions about what would actually happen if an EU member state sought assistance under the clause.

(at, bw)