An analysis of regional balance, internal challenges, and institutional sovereignty
Iraq today is one of the most strategic countries in the Middle East. Its geographical position, its immense oil resources, and its history make it a central player in regional balances. Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, the country has sought to rebuild a State capable of fully exercising its authority while resisting external influences. The rivalries between the United States and Iran play out widely on Iraqi territory, but they do not suffice to explain the complexity of the situation. Internal political fractures, corruption, economic challenges, and security issues play an equally decisive role.
Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq relied on an extremely centralized system. The State controlled the army, the security services, the administration, and the economy. This centralization ensured a rapid decision-making capacity but was accompanied by severe political repression and an absence of public freedoms. Successive wars, international sanctions, and then the 2003 invasion profoundly weakened this structure.
After 2003, the dissolution of the army and de-Ba’athification left a considerable institutional vacuum. The new political order, based on power-sharing among the main components of Iraqi society, allowed for the organization of elections and the establishment of democratic institutions. However, this system also favored the fragmentation of power, clientelism, and the emergence of competing political networks that gradually weakened the State’s capacity to impose a single authority.
Today, the federal government de facto shares the political space with numerous actors: parties, regional authorities, tribes, religious institutions, and various components of the Popular Mobilization Forces. This reality makes any reform particularly difficult. Governing Iraq often consists of seeking a permanent balance between sometimes contradictory interests.
In this context, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has set the goal of restoring the authority of the State. His discourse emphasizes the fight against corruption, the modernization of the administration, economic development, and the strengthening of institutions. His government also seeks to attract more foreign investment in order to diversify the economy and reduce dependence solely on oil revenues.
Corruption remains one of the primary obstacles to development. For years, mechanisms for embezzling public funds, favoritism, and irregular contracts have weakened public finances and reduced citizens’ trust in their institutions. The campaigns launched by the government to prosecute officials suspected of corruption, recover public assets, and strengthen administrative controls are presented as an important step toward more transparent governance. Their success, however, will depend on the capacity of judicial institutions to act independently and sustainably.
On the international stage, Iraq pursues a policy of balance. The United States supports the strengthening of institutions, security cooperation, and economic development. Iran, for its part, maintains significant influence through its historical, political, religious, and economic relations with a portion of the Iraqi ruling class and certain armed factions. The government’s challenge is to preserve constructive relations with each of these partners without compromising national sovereignty.
The Iraqi economy remains heavily dependent on oil exports. This dependence exposes the country to fluctuations in global prices and limits the development of other sectors such as industry, agriculture, or new technologies. To guarantee sustainable growth, authorities will need to improve the business climate, develop infrastructure, strengthen the banking system, invest in education, and encourage the emergence of a dynamic private sector.
The future of Iraq will depend above all on the solidity of its institutions. If the reforms underway succeed in reducing corruption, strengthening the rule of law, improving public services, and creating economic opportunities for a young population, the country can gradually reclaim its place as a stable regional power. Conversely, if political divisions, rivalries between armed actors, and external influences continue to prevail over reforms, current vulnerabilities are likely to persist.
Recent history shows, nonetheless, that Iraq possesses significant assets: a resilient population, considerable natural resources, a strategic geographical position, and a growing determination to strengthen national institutions. Ali al-Zaidi’s wager consists precisely of transforming these assets into the foundations of a more sovereign, more effective, and more respected State on the regional stage. The success of this ambition will depend less on the victory of one foreign power over another than on the capacity of Iraqis themselves to sustainably consolidate their State and restore trust between citizens and their institutions.
*Isaac Hammouch is a Belgian journalist and writer, specializing in geopolitics, international security, and the transformations of the contemporary world.