You’re reading Rapporteur on Monday 22 June. This is Eddy Wax in Brussels, with Nicoletta Ionta.
Need-to-knows:
🟢 A decade on, Brussels and London reach a Brexit equilibrium🟢 Europe closes in on E5+EU format for Ukraine peace talks🟢 Renew calls for sanctions after ‘racist’ ECR remarks
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From the capital
Brexit isn’t the reason behind Keir Starmer’s downfall. That owes more to his serial U-turns, chronic risk-aversion, the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington and the looming challenge from fellow Labour politician Andy Burnham, who won a landslide by-election last week.
But from Brussels, Brexit looks set to swallow another victim. Starmer is the sixth prime minister since Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union a decade ago tomorrow. He pursued a gentle reset with the bloc before trying to speed up warmer ties as his political capital ran out.
If, as expected, he does resign today, he could be on his way out one month before an EU-UK summit he was desperate to secure. His two main challengers are divided on the prospect of rejoining the EU.
Wes Streeting is openly supportive; Burnham, once a Remainer, has largely avoided the subject, aware of its political toxicity, particularly when facing a Nigel Farage-backed opponent in Makerfield.
Scarred by the brutality of those Brexit years, Brussels is interested in a pragmatic partnership with London on Ukraine, and little more.
“The relationship with the UK is of course a topic, but in terms of enlargement it’s not on the agenda,” one European diplomat told me.
Europeans are also divided on what Britain’s future relationship with the bloc should look like. Michel Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator, told The Guardian last week that Britain could one day return on supremely favourable terms, keeping the pound and staying outside Schengen. His former boss, Jean-Claude Juncker, told the FT that rejoining was unrealistic and that most EU governments would give Britain the cold shoulder.
For today’s European leaders, Brexit serves chiefly as a cautionary tale.
At a conference earlier this month, Belgian PM Bart De Wever recounted a tragicomic anecdote from the months before the 2016 referendum.
He recalled meeting a confident David Cameron at Downing Street.
“‘Don’t worry about Brexit cos I’ll win the referendum, we’ll stay in the European Union,’” Cameron told him. De Wever, who cast himself as a naive young mayor of Antwerp, said he admired Cameron’s insistence that there should be no contingency planning.
“If that leaks out, the population would hear that we are planning for the actual Brexit then they will start to take it seriously and they will vote for it.”
Later, he met Boris Johnson, then mayor of London, who was backing Leave. “Don’t worry, cos I will lose,” Johnson told him, predicting Brexit would secure only 45% support. According to De Wever, Johnson believed the campaign would nevertheless position him to take over the Conservative party and eventually become prime minister.
“That’s just to say that you should be careful with your relationships. If you’re an irresponsible leader in one year, you can destroy what it took decades to build,” De Wever said.
EU, E3 or E5?
After a buoyant G7, the main takeaway from Thursday and Friday’s EU summit was that Europeans – for now – lack a clear plan for who should sit alongside Volodymyr Zelenskyy in any future peace talks with Russia. The Americans would be there too, of course, and European participation would depend on Zelenskyy’s say-so.
While leaders spent hours discussing a future seating plan, 25 agreed there’s currently no table to sit at. Putin isn’t interested in peace talks, they concluded. Only two called for immediate negotiations to begin. The issue gained prominence after Donald Trump acknowledged at the G7 that Europe had earned a role in any future Ukraine peace settlement, according to senior diplomats.
European Council President António Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen both pitched for their own involvement should talks eventually materialise.
Emmanuel Macron told journalists that “the EU will have to be represented, and Costa, within the scope of his responsibilities, will have a role to play.” He then referred to the “representatives” (plural) of the EU institutions being at the table, hinting at a possible Costa-Von der Leyen duo.
But Macron also insisted that when it comes to security guarantees, such as those developed by the Coalition of the Willing that he leads alongside Britain, nation states must also have a seat at the table.
Friedrich Merz framed the E3 comprising Britain, France and Germany as Ukraine’s favoured format and suggested it would naturally play a leading role. But he said he would keep eastern states like Poland informed and downplayed the urgency of settling the question. “We don’t have to decide who will speak on the EU’s behalf; we will decide that when it’s time,” he told reporters.
Donald Tusk said Poland wouldn’t respect “any arrangements made without its participation” and added that Italy’s Giorgia Meloni had given him “unequivocal support” for that stance.
Merz is hosting the E5 in Berlin this week.
Racism storm
The liberal Renew group in the European Parliament is pushing for sanctions against members of the right-wing ECR group after accusing them of making racist remarks online against Swedish-Iraqi MEP Abir Al-Sahlani.
The debacle erupted after last Wednesday’s final vote on a controversial EU returns regulation, when some right-wing populist MEPs chanted “send them home” in the chamber.
Danish ECR deputy Kristoffer Storm later wrote on social media that “Abir Al-Sahlani should go home,” referring to the Swedish-Iraqi lawmaker after she posted a video saying she had “never felt so unsafe in this Parliament.”
Polish S&D MEP Krzysztof Śmiszek accused Renew of being “complicit” in an “ugly wave of racism,” noting that about 37 of its members backed the legislation, which paves the way for the EU to establish return hubs outside the bloc for rejected asylum seekers. Nine members of his own group also voted in favour.
After Friday’s EU summit, Macron reiterated that France does not support the creation of offshore return hubs, saying he disagreed with the concept “both pragmatically and in principle”. Read Pietro Guastamacchia’s full story.
Here are three new stories from Euractiv:
Schuman roundabout
HUNGARIAN ENVOY TO STAY: Bálint Ódor will remain Hungary’s ambassador to the EU, despite widespread speculation he would be replaced following Viktor Orbán’s departure. Speaking to reporters in Brussels on Friday, Péter Magyar praised Ódor’s long experience in EU affairs and said his government would like him to continue in the role: “He is a diplomat who, as far as I can recall, has spent almost his entire career dealing with European Union affairs.”
KALLAS NO-SHOWS THIEL EVENT: Kaja Kallas’ name turned up on a leaked list of potential participants at an elite annual “Dialog” event run by pro-MAGA tech billionaire Peter Thiel. Her spokesperson told the Guardian: “The High Representative is not a member of this group. If you’re referring to the press coverage that there’s apparently a meeting in Ireland in August, we have no intention of going there, if that meeting even exists.”
WORLD’S SMALLEST TRADE DEAL: Maroš Šefčovič appeared to celebrate EU trade with the Dominican Republic soaring to more than €9 in 2024 in a post on X on Friday. On Sunday, he corrected the figure, clarifying that trade had exceeded €9 billion.
The capitals
BERN 🇨🇭
Iran’s delegation briefly left the Swiss venue hosting talks with the US on Sunday after Donald Trump threatened military action over Tehran’s support for Hezbollah, prompting speculation over the negotiations’ future. Iranian state media linked the departure to Trump’s remarks, but a diplomat said Tehran remained engaged. The talks, aimed at consolidating a ceasefire and addressing wider regional tensions, continue amid renewed friction over Lebanon and Iran’s nuclear programme.– Christina Zhao
WARSAW 🇵🇱
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, accused Karol Nawrocki of damaging recent progress in bilateral relations after Warsaw stripped Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Poland’s highest state honour over Kyiv’s decision to name a military unit after the UPA, a wartime nationalist group. Sybiha said the move would earn Nawrocki “applause from Moscow” and warned Ukraine would respond “symmetrically” to further unfriendly actions. He added that Zelenskyy had yet to decide whether to attend next week’s Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk.– Charles Szumski
BERLIN 🇩🇪
Germany’s left-wing Die Linke voted at a party conference over the weekend to cap the income of its representatives in the Bundestag and European Parliament. Under the new rule, elected officials must donate most of their parliamentary salaries to social causes and retain only an “average salary.” The cap is tied to a public-sector pay agreement and currently stands at €5,300 gross a month, compared with Bundestag salaries of nearly €12,000.– Victoria Becker
PARIS 🇫🇷
France placed a third of the country under its highest heat alert on Sunday as temperatures approached 40°C, prompting authorities to ban public drinking in affected areas, bolster wildfire readiness and put emergency services on heightened alert. The government warned Monday could be even hotter. Concerns are focused on vulnerable people, while some outdoor sporting events have been cancelled and schools have been told exams may need to be rescheduled.– Christina Zhao
MADRID 🇪🇸
A Spanish court ordered Begoña Gómez, the wife of Pedro Sánchez, to stand trial on Saturday and imposed travel restrictions requiring her to surrender her passport and report to court twice a month. A Madrid judge cited a risk of flight, arguing Gómez could use her police escorts to evade justice. The government condemned the measures as disproportionate and politically motivated. Spain’s judicial governing body is due to review the judge’s reasoning on Monday.– Inés Fernández-Pontes
STOCKHOLM 🇸🇪
Jimmie Åkesson, leader of the far-right Sweden Democrats, set out new conditions for supporting Sweden’s centre-right government ahead of September’s parliamentary elections. Åkesson ruled out cuts to unemployment and sickness benefits, called for expanded dental care coverage and signalled a greater focus on welfare policies. He also left open the possibility of urging supporters to back the Liberals, whose parliamentary survival could prove crucial to maintaining the governing bloc’s majority.– Charles Szumski
BELGRADE 🇷🇸
Thousands of people rallied in Novi Sad on Saturday to demand snap elections and protest what they describe as government corruption. Serbia’s student movement, which has no formal leadership, said it would field candidates in the next parliamentary vote and launch a nationwide canvassing effort this summer. President Aleksandar Vučić has indicated elections will be held after the summer, although no date has yet been announced.– Bronwyn Jones
Contributors: Pietro Guastamacchia, Magnus Lund Nielsen
Editors: Christina Zhao, Sofia Mandilara, Charles Szumski
Source:
www.euractiv.com