Far-right AfD surged to a commanding 43.8% of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt state election held on September 6, while the long-dominant CDU tumbled to 17.2%, down sharply from 37.1% in 2021. Turnout rose to nearly 78%, a level that analysts say amplified the AfD’s advantage and left established parties facing an unexpectedly severe defeat at the ballot box.
Voter shifts were decisive: much of the AfD’s growth came from people who had not voted previously, together with a notable share of former CDU supporters. The result also produced tactical calculations that helped smaller parties: the SPD and the Greens benefitted from targeted backing by some CDU and Left Party voters, enabling them to clear the 5% threshold for representation. In the aftermath, the party’s candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, has multiple avenues to seek the minister-president post in Saxony-Anhalt, most plausibly through an arrangement with the new Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) or by securing secret-ballot support from individual CDU members.
The AfD’s reach cut across social groups. Exit data show particularly strong backing from working-class voters (59%), people with lower formal education (57%), and those who rated their household finances poorly (65%), while the party still attracted significant shares of graduates (30%) and voters reporting a good financial situation (37%). Support exceeded 40% in almost all age cohorts except the over-70s (31%). Immigration emerged as a dominant motive for AfD sympathisers, with 91% expressing concern about the number of foreign residents. Broader discontent was evident: 66% of voters said they were dissatisfied with the state government — which had been led by the CDU since 2002 — and large majorities judged the federal administration under Friedrich Merz to be insufficiently attentive to ordinary citizens’ problems.
The election raises immediate questions about what an AfD-led administration would enact and the legal and institutional scrutiny it would face: German intelligence services already regard the party as right-wing extremist in the state, and expected policy thrusts include moves on education, culture, public order and broadcasting that are likely to prompt court challenges. Nationally, the outcome intensifies pressure on the CDU and on Merz, with further state contests — notably Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin on September 21 — set to test whether mainstream parties can close ranks or will be forced into new strategic shifts, potentially reopening contested reforms such as pensions. The result underlines a deepening fragmentation of the party system that complicates governing coalitions and creates openings the AfD can exploit electorally.